Market Report · June 2026June 2026 Southern Ontario Real Estate Market Report: What's Really Happening Across the GTA, Hamilton & Waterloo RegionSales up, listings down, prices
Dated: November 7 2025
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What's Really Happening Across the GTA, Hamilton, and Waterloo Region
October 2025 brought nuanced changes to the real estate landscape across the GTA, Hamilton, and Waterloo Region. The market shifted further toward balanced-to-buyer's conditions, especially across higher-density neighborhoods, following a September rate cut and rising inventory levels.
Most submarkets lean toward buyer's favor, especially for condos and entry-level homes, while sought-after detached properties in premium communities remain competitive.
Prices have stabilized since September. Year-over-year, most regions show mild to moderate increases, with some micro-markets cooling gradually.
Sales volumes are up from September 2025 and October 2024 in many areas, reflecting renewed activity after the Bank of Canada's recent rate cut.
Average home prices softened modestly compared to September, yet remained above October 2024 levels in most key regions. Expanded inventory gives buyers more choices.
Average Price: $1.13M (Detached) $820k (Condo)
Sales Volume: Up 5% month-over-month, steady year-over-year
Best Neighborhoods for Buyers: Scarborough, North York, select downtown condo communities offering best inventory and low price growth
Price Changes: Downtown core condos ↑2% y/y Detached in The Beaches ↓1%
Average Price: $1.07M (Mississauga) $980k (Brampton)
Sales Trend: Mississauga up 7% month-over-month; Brampton flat
Top Areas: Meadowvale (Mississauga), Heart Lake (Brampton) for buyer inventory
Price Shifts: Mississauga detached flat y/y Brampton townhomes ↑3% y/y
Average Price: $1.28M
Sales Change: 2% up vs September, 5% up year-over-year
Key Areas: Markham and Vaughan condos offer value; King City remains luxury-focused with limited inventory
Price Trends: Markham condos ↑4% y/y Vaughan semis ↓1% y/y
Average Price: $890k
Sales Activity: 8% month-over-month, steady year-over-year
Best Buy Neighborhoods: Oshawa, Clarington for townhomes
Price Movement: Durham detached ↑2% y/y Condos flat
Average Price: $1.25M (Oakville) $980k (Halton Hills)
Market Status: Balanced with steady supply, minor price declines for condos, steady detached home prices
Strongest Segments: Oakville townhomes ↑2% y/y Halton Hills detached flat
Best Buy Areas: Acton and Georgetown—ample inventory, slower price growth
Average Price: $835k
Sales Trend: Up 12% month-over-month, 8% year-over-year
Hot Neighborhoods: Stoney Creek, West Hamilton; Brantford for highest inventory and lowest price increase
Notable Shifts: Burlington condos ↑3% y/y Hamilton detached flat
Average Price: $795k
Market Update: 10% sales increase since September, minor year-over-year price lifts
Top Neighborhoods: Cambridge townhomes offer highest value
Price Trends: Kitchener semis ↑1% y/y Waterloo condos flat
| Region | Avg. Price Oct '25 | MoM Change | YoY Change | Top Buyer Neighborhoods | Biggest Price Shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | $1.13M (Detached) | ↑5% | Flat | Scarborough, North York | Core condos ↑2% y/y |
| Peel | $1.07M / $980k | ↑7% MS, Flat BR | Flat / ↑3% | Meadowvale, Heart Lake | Brampton townhomes ↑3% y/y |
| York Region | $1.28M | ↑2% | ↑5% | Markham condos, Vaughan semis | Markham condos ↑4% y/y |
| Durham | $890k | ↑8% | Flat | Oshawa, Clarington | Detached ↑2% y/y |
| Halton | $1.25M / $980k | ↑4% | ↑1% | Acton, Georgetown | Oakville townhomes ↑2% y/y |
| Hamilton-Burlington | $835k | ↑12% | ↑8% | Stoney Creek, Brantford | Burlington condos ↑3% y/y |
| Waterloo Region | $795k | ↑10% | ↑2% | Cambridge townhomes | Kitchener semis ↑1% y/y |
| Housing Type | Avg. Price (GTHWA) | MoM Change | YoY Change | Inventory Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $1.07M | ↑2% | Flat | Low |
| Condo | $820k | ↑1% | Flat | High |
| Semi | $990k | ↑3% | ↑1% | Medium |
| Townhome | $890k | ↑3% | ↑2% | Medium |
Price growth flat to 2% across most regions. Sales strongest in Burlington, Oakville, and Markham among premium listings. Inventory tightening in select luxury suburbs creates competitive conditions for high-end properties.
Steady demand with minimal price changes. Best buyer opportunity downtown Toronto and Waterloo. Elevated inventory and stable prices support strong buyer leverage, making condos an attractive entry point for first-time buyers.
Outperformed condos in most suburbs with price gains of 1-3% year-over-year. Driven by first-time buyers and upsizing families seeking more space. More choices available, especially in Peel and Durham regions.
The September 2025 Bank of Canada interest rate cut has improved mortgage accessibility, helped boost sales momentum, and strengthened buyer confidence. This policy shift has been a primary driver of the increased activity observed in October 2025.
Ontario's robust immigration pipeline continues to fuel housing demand, especially for affordable and multi-family homes in the Waterloo and Durham regions. This sustained population growth provides fundamental support for real estate values.
Expanded inventory compared to both September and October 2024 means buyers have far more choice, though pockets of low supply persist for luxury detached properties. The inventory increase has been most pronounced in condo and townhome segments.
Recent provincial affordability measures have started to positively impact townhome and condo availability, particularly in mid-density, family-oriented neighborhoods across Peel and Halton. These policy changes continue to shape market dynamics.
Buyer and seller confidence strengthened in October following the rate cut, translating to surges in search activity, viewing appointments, and firm offers. Sellers, in turn, are more motivated to negotiate, especially in high-density areas and among those listing condos or townhomes.
Buyers are trending toward seeking value and opportunistic deals. The improved interest rate environment has brought fence-sitters back into the market. There's increased focus on properties with strong fundamentals in established neighborhoods.
Investor attention remains sharp on properties with income potential in Waterloo and Hamilton. University neighborhoods and transit-connected areas are seeing particular interest from investors looking to capitalize on rental demand.
Sellers are more willing to list properties and negotiate on price, particularly in segments with higher inventory. Strategic pricing and property presentation have become more critical in securing optimal outcomes.
Elevated inventory and stable prices support strong buyer leverage downtown and in Waterloo. With minimal year-over-year price increases and abundant choice, buyers can negotiate favorable terms while entering the market at relatively accessible price points.
Cambridge, Brantford, and North York provide high inventory and moderate pricing. These areas offer the most accessible entry points into homeownership with average prices ranging from $795k to $890k, combined with good selection and community amenities.
Yes, especially in Markham, Oakville, and Burlington where inventory remains lower than average. Premium detached properties in established neighborhoods continue to see multiple offers and quick sales, particularly for well-presented homes.
Buyers have more choice and leverage across most segments, while sellers need to price competitively in all segments except luxury detached. Investors can target rising rental demand in transit-connected cities and university neighborhoods. The rate cut has created favorable conditions for well-prepared participants on both sides.
Expect continued balanced-to-buyer's market conditions across Southern Ontario through Q4 2025, with modest price appreciation in premium detached segments and stable pricing for condos.
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